Paper Briefing 2026-09-13

Quantitative Economic History

1 item

Currency Wars and Trade

NEP-INT CEPR Discussion Papers Mitchener, Kris, Wandschneider, Kirsten · 2025-01

Uses newly compiled high-frequency bilateral trade data to identify how the 1929-1936 currency war among 70+ devaluing countries reduced global trade flows, a cliometric take on the Great Depression.

Causal Inference & Applied Microeconometrics

17 items

Randomization tests for model specification in causal inference under network interference

NEP-ECM Papers Supriya Tiwari, Pallavi Basu · 2026-08

Proposes randomization-based specification tests for the exposure mapping used to identify spillover effects in network-interference settings, addressing a design choice usually left unchecked in applied work.

Identification and Inference for Causal Effects in Extremes under General Conditions

NEP-ECM Papers Lisa Leimenstoll, Melanie Schienle · 2026-08

Extends causal identification and inference to tail (extreme) outcomes via a causal tail coefficient, moving beyond the average-effect focus of most causal inference work.

Difference-in-Differences Models in the Presence of Time-Varying Mediators

NEP-ECM Papers Kyunghoon Ban, Zhengrun Chen, D\'esir\'e K\'edagni · 2026-08

Shows that standard DiD/TWFE estimands mix direct, indirect and trend-bias components when an endogenous time-varying mediator sits between treatment and outcome, and proposes a fix.

A Nonparametric Test for Cross-Unit Spillovers

NEP-ECM Papers Margherita Comola, Camila Comunello, Abhimanyu Gupta · 2026-07

Develops a nonparametric test for cross-unit spillovers operating through peers' attributes or outcomes, requiring estimation only under the null of no interference.

Don't Drop the Singletons: Efficient Inference for Pairwise Experiments with Independent Attrition

NEP-ECM Papers Simon He{\ss}, Patrick W. Schmidt · 2026-08

Argues against the common practice of dropping incomplete pairs in pairwise-randomized experiments with attrition, proposing an estimator that retains singletons for efficiency.

Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Functional-Form-Robust Spatial Autoregression

NEP-ECM Papers Jieun Lee · 2026-08

Develops double/debiased machine learning inference for spatial autoregressive parameters when the spatial interaction structure itself is learned flexibly from potentially endogenous data rather than assumed known.

Uniform Inference on Quantile Effects under Network Interference

NEP-ECM Papers Zequn Jin, Gaoqian Xu, Zixin Yang, Zhengyu Zhang · 2026-08

Derives uniform inference for quantile treatment and spillover effects in network experiments, capturing heterogeneity that average spillover effects mask.

The Limits of Experimental Design: Covariate Balance Beyond Low Dimension

NEP-ECM Papers Max Cytrynbaum · 2026-08

Proves an impossibility result on how few covariates an experimental design can balance while still approaching the semiparametric efficiency bound, with new designs for the high-dimensional regime.

Inference with AI-Generated Covariates

NEP-ECM Junting Duan, Markus Pelger · 2026-07

Formalizes how LLM-extracted features used as covariates (hallucination, look-ahead bias) can invalidate downstream inference even after standard corrections, directly bearing on LLM-assisted coding as a measurement source.

Testing selection on observables in parametric models with refreshment samples

NEP-ECM Papers Grigory Franguridi, Arie Kapteyn · 2026-08

Develops a test of missing-at-random selection in panels using refreshment samples, comparing IPW-based and refreshment-based distribution estimates.

Exact Inference in Fixed-Effect Regressions with Concentrated Identifying Variation

NEP-ECM Papers Stanis{\l}aw M. S. Halkiewicz · 2026-08

Shows that inference validity in saturated fixed-effects regressions depends on the concentration of identifying variation rather than its total amount, undermining fixed critical values in that regime.

Measurement Error and Peer Effects in Networks

NEP-ECM Papers Yann Bramoull\'e, Sebastiaan Maes · 2026-07

Finds that mismeasured regressors can inflate rather than attenuate estimated peer effects in linear-in-means models, with network structure aiding identification without external instruments.

Fixed-Effect Saturation Is Not Weak Identification: Certifying Inference under Measurement Error

NEP-ECM Papers Stanis{\l}aw M. S. Halkiewicz · 2026-08

Clarifies that fixed-effect saturation alone does not cause weak identification, but classical measurement error in treatment does, and derives Stock-Yogo-style critical values for the resulting bias.

Classification testing: A new framework for drawing qualitative conclusions from quantitative estimates

NEP-ECM Papers Andrew C. Eggers, Zikai Li · 2026-08

Proposes 'classification testing' as an alternative to single-hypothesis tests, letting researchers assign an estimate to a substantively meaningful class rather than reject or fail to reject one null.

When Is the Mover-Design Event Study Coefficient a Place-Effect Share?

NEP-ECM Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers Vahid Moghani · 2026-08-11

Shows the mover-design event-study coefficient, widely used to split place effects from sorting, only supports its usual cross-sectional interpretation under a testable directional-isotropy condition on how movers connect locations.

The Measurement Revolution? Credible Measurement and Inference in the Age of AI

NEP-ECM Papers Melissa Dell, Ashesh Rambachan · 2026-08

Reviews how AI-driven measurement shifts the applied bottleneck from finding any scalable measure to choosing among many, with direct stakes for credible inference wherever LLM-assisted coding replaces manual extraction.

Beyond Condition Numbers: Diagnosing Collinearity in Heckman Models

NEP-ECM 2026 Annual Meeting Honny, Emmanuel, Chung, Chanjin · 2026

Proposes diagnostics for collinearity in Heckman selection models that go beyond simple condition numbers.

Institutional & Political Economy

2 items

Identity, Electoral Preferences, and Voting in Times of Geopolitical Trade Conflicts

NEP-INT CESifo Working Paper Series Toshihiro Okubo, Ilan Noy · 2026

Uses a Japanese worker panel around the 2025 US tariff and China-Taiwan shocks to show trade-policy attitudes and voting shift with workers' identification with their employer and its trade exposure, not just individual material interest.

A theory of conspiracy theories

PubChoice Serhan Cevik · 2026-09-12

A Public Choice theory paper on why conspiracy theories persist and spread, framing belief formation as a political-economy problem of trust in institutions.

Sports Economics

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Everything else (32)

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NEP-ECMA Common European Business Cycle: Markov-Switching SUR with Cross-Sectional WeightingDepartment of Economics Working Papers · Michael Dueker, Inés Kishkill, Martín Sola
NEP-ECMA fully nonlinear structural vector autoregressive model identified via independent innovation analysisPapers · Savi Virolainen
NEP-ECMBandwidth-Free Inference for Recursive Nonlinear Impulse Response FunctionsPapers · Guilherme Vianna
NEP-ECMCausal Non-causal State Space Models and the Modelling of Financial BubblesPapers · Frederik Bjerg Krabbe
NEP-ECMComposite Univariate Modeling of Realized Covariance Matrix Dynamics and Volatility-at-RiskTinbergen Institute Discussion Papers · Justus Holman, Andre Lucas, Anne Opschoor
NEP-ECMConditional projection methods for large-scale Bayesian VARsPapers · Niko Hauzenberger, Michael Pfarrhofer
NEP-ECMConfidence Sets for the Date of a Weak Mean Break in Functional DataTinbergen Institute Discussion Papers · Yicong Lin
NEP-ECMCurvature-Calibrated Quasi-Bayesian Updating for Moment-Restricted ModelsPapers · Masahiro Tanaka
NEP-ECMDynamic Discrete Choice and Inverse Reinforcement Learning: Inferring Preferences and Beliefs From Human BehaviorPapers · Pranjal Rawat, John Rust
NEP-ECMExact Rejection Sampling for Non-Gaussian State Space ModelsPapers · Joshua C. C. Chan
NEP-ECMFixed-$T$ Dynamic Spatial Panel Model with Common ShocksPapers · Jushan Bai, Jesse Chieh Chen
NEP-ECMJoint Eigenvector and Eigenvalue Dynamics with an Application to Time-Varying Covariance MatricesTinbergen Institute Discussion Papers · Justus Holman, Yicong Lin, Andre Lucas, Anne Opschoor
NEP-ECMParameter Identification in Autoregressions under Discrete Sampling or Temporal AggregationPapers · Marko Mlikota
NEP-ECMRepairing Locally Misspecified GMM: An Empirical Bayes ApproachPapers · Patrick Kline
NEP-ECMSequentially valid inference for probabilistic inflation forecastsPapers · Amadeo Grob, Maurizio Daniele, Johanna Ziegel
NEP-ECMTesting for Smooth Structural Change in Cointegrated SystemsPapers · Haofeng Liao, Xing Wang
NEP-INTCheap Energy Might Not Be Enough : A Trade Model of AI Compute ServicesPolicy Research Working Paper Series · Lokshin, Michael M.
NEP-INTDeep Integration and Trade: UK Firms in the Wake of BrexitCEPR Discussion Papers · Freeman, Rebecca, Garofalo, Marco, Longoni, Enrico, Manova, Kalina, Mari, Rebecca, Prayer, Thomas & 1 more
NEP-INTE-Commerce Provisions and Free Trade AgreementsWorking Papers · Houssein Guimbard, Camilo Umana-Dajud
NEP-INTHow did Trump's 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US-China supply chains?Working Paper Series · Chad P. Bown
NEP-INTImport liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United StatesLSE Research Online Documents on Economics · Breinlich, Holger, Leromain, Elsa, Novy, Dennis, Sampson, Thomas
NEP-INTMade with China: Global supply chains and the limits of US decouplingPolicy Briefs · Mary E. Lovely, Christine Y. Wan
NEP-INTNot All Waste Trades Alike: Material Archetypes in the Gravity of Global Waste FlowsWorking Papers · Stefano Bolatto, Filippo Santi, Maria Tremuli
NEP-INTRTA exit and trade: Evidence from losing shared trade agreementCEPIE Working Papers · Yao, Zhixiao
NEP-INTRevisiting Russian war-time import substitutionBOFIT Policy Briefs · Simola, Heli
NEP-INTThe Price Impact of Canadian Retaliatory TariffsStaff Working Papers · Alberto Cavallo, Olena Kostyshyna, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Matías Vieyra
NEP-INTTheory-Consistent Tariff AggregationCESifo Working Paper Series · James E. Anderson, Mario Larch, Serge Shikher, Yoto V. Yotov
NEP-INTTrade Diversion and Jobs: Evidence from Mexican MunicipalitiesIZA Discussion Papers · Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos, Vazquez, Emmanuel, Winkler, Hernan
NEP-INTTrade Policy Shocks under the Second Trump AdministrationWorking Papers · Houssein Guimbard
NEP-INTTrade sanctions: Evidence from RussiaKiel Working Papers · Crozet, Matthieu, Hinz, Julian, Šváb, Patrik
NEP-INTTrump's tariffs: A deal is a deal? An empirical analysis of the effective US import tariff rates on the EU, China and othersIW-Reports · Sultan, Samina, Gros, Daniel, Rotondi, Niccolò
NEP-INTWhy are German exports benefiting less from global growth than they used to?EconStor Preprints · Salzmann, Leonard, Schulz, Philipp