Paper Briefing

42 new items across 4 threads · 92 screened · 48 of 50 sources reached

Sources queried this run
NBER Working Papers · arXiv General Economics · arXiv Econometrics · NEP: Business, Economic and Financial History · NEP: Econometrics · NEP: Positive Political Economics · NEP: Sports and Economics · NEP: Cultural Economics · NEP: Evolutionary Economics · NEP: Economic Growth · NEP: History and Philosophy of Economics · NEP: Public Economics · NEP: Demographic Economics · NEP: Migration · NEP: International Trade · NEP: Labour Economics · NEP: Development · NEP: Cognitive and Behavioural Economics · American Economic Review · Econometrica · Journal of Political Economy · Quarterly Journal of Economics · Review of Economic Studies · AEJ: Applied Economics · AEJ: Economic Policy · Review of Economics and Statistics · Journal of Economic Literature · Journal of Economic Perspectives · Journal of Economic History · Explorations in Economic History · European Review of Economic History · Cliometrica · Economic History Review · Public Choice · Journal of Institutional Economics · Quarterly Journal of Political Science · American Political Science Review · Journal of Economic Growth · Journal of Sports Economics · Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (Yale) · Northwestern CMS-EMS Discussion Papers · Harvard HIER Discussion Papers · UC Berkeley IBER Working Papers · UCLA Economics Working Papers · UC eScholarship Economics Working Papers · CERGE-EI Working Papers · Becker Friedman Institute Working Papers · Princeton IES Working Papers

Quantitative Economic History

16 items

“Dormant securities : Imperial guarantees for colonial loans, 1842-1934

NEP-HIS CEPR Discussion Papers Esteves, Rui, Tuncer, Ali Coskun · 2024-07

Shows markets priced explicit British guarantees on colonial bonds and traces how regulatory substitutes eroded and then restored their value, a quantitative window into the institutional mechanics of imperial sovereign credit.

World War I and Female Labor Force Participation: The Case of England and Wales

NEP-HIS TSE Working Papers Gay, Victor, Milner, Benjamin · 2026-09

Links district-level WWI fatality rates to full-count census microdata to show wartime mortality raised postwar female labour-force participation in England and Wales, though the aggregate effect was modest.

Spanish commercial policy and the Philippines: an integrated perspective

NEP-HIS UP School of Economics Discussion Papers Emmanuel S. De Dios · 2025-09

Traces Spanish colonial trade policy toward the Philippines through shifting metropolitan ideas and interests — an integrative historical narrative rather than a quantitative test, but useful institutional-history context.

Detecting Critical Junctures as They Unfold: Foundations, Measurement, and Applications from 120 Years of Reporting

NEP-HIS NEP: Business Michael Callen, Gregory Levy, Saipremnath Muthukumaran, Jonathan L. Weigel, Noam Yuchtman · 2026-07

Develops a measurement framework for detecting institutional critical junctures as they unfold, using 120 years of reporting, aimed directly at the "why do institutions change" question central to institutional-persistence research.

Retreating from Science: The Long-Run Effects of the 1970s U.S. Military Disinvestment from University Research

NEP-HIS NEP: Business Daniel P. Gross, Bhaven N. Sampat, Hansen Zhang · 2026-07

Documents how the 1970s collapse in DoD funding of university research permanently shrank the US academic science system, a historical natural experiment in state capacity for research investment.

Early Life Healthcare Access and Later-life Mortality: Evidence Using Openings of County Health Departments

NEP-HIS NEP: Business Hamid Noghanibehambari, Jason Fletcher · 2026-07

Links SSA death records to the 1940 census in a difference-in-differences design to show early-20th-century county health department openings raised later-life longevity, a nice example of historical record linkage.

Italy's Lost Decades: Trade, Capital Flows and Currency Crisis, 1861-1883

NEP-HIS CEPR Discussion Papers Federico, Giovanni, Incerpi, Andrea · 2024-07

Analyses how post-Unification Italy funded aggressive state-building with foreign capital and narrowly avoided an Argentina-style default, tracing the causal links between fiscal policy, capital imports and the 1861-83 stagnation.

The Confucian Fertility Paradox: Education Competition and Ultra-Low Fertility in East Asia

NEP-HIS NEP: Business Hanming Fang, Chang Liu · 2026-07

Argues East Asia's ultra-low fertility reflects the uneven modernisation of two distinct strands of Confucian family tradition rather than a single cultural legacy, a long-run cultural-persistence account of the fertility collapse.

Quantitative tightening? Britain’s 1980s experiment with overfunding

NEP-HIS Bank of England Staff Working Paper series David Ronicle · 2026-05-22

Uses a novel instrument from money-market segmentation to show the Bank of England's 1980s "overfunding" experiment tightened financial conditions, drawing a direct historical parallel to modern QT.

The Long-Term Effects of British and French Colonization in Africa on Trust in Traditional Leaders

NEP-HIS Papers Brice Romuald Gueyap Kounga · 2026-08

Uses Afrobarometer data and a plausible identification strategy to show former British colonies trust traditional leaders more than former French colonies, a colonial-legacy institutional-persistence result.

The evolution of private wealth in a peripheral, natural resource-based economy: Uruguay, 1860–1940

NEP-HIS Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) Sabrina Siniscalchi, Henry Willebald · 2026-08

Reconstructs Uruguay's private wealth and national income back to 1860 in a Piketty-Zucman framework, exactly the kind of long-run historical dataset construction this briefing tracks.

A Millennium of UK Business Cycles: insights from a structural VAR analysis

NEP-HIS Working Papers Series Leonardo N. Ferreira, Haroon Mumtaz, Gabor Pinter · 2026-08

Estimates a time-varying SVAR over seven centuries of UK data and finds business cycles flip from supply-driven before 1900 to demand-driven after, an ambitious long-run quantitative-history exercise.

Agglomeration and Fragility: Firm Responses to the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake

NEP-HIS Working Papers Tetsuji Okazaki, Toshihiro Okubo, Eric Strobl · 2026-07

Digitises a unique post-earthquake firm survey from 1923 Tokyo to show how disruption of local agglomeration economies shaped firm adjustment, a good example of historical data digitisation feeding a causal question.

The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Restrictions on Women’s Cognitive Aging

NEP-HIS Papers Yvonne Krabbe-Alkemade, France Portrait, Maarten Lindeboom, Marjolein Broese van Groenou, Hendrika J Luijen, Dorly Deegdijk · 2026-09-03

Exploits the 1957 Dutch repeal of employment restrictions on married women as a natural experiment to identify effects of early-adulthood labour-market restrictions on later-life cognitive functioning.

Silent archival of World Development Indicators: data unavailability for retired WDI series through the World Bank API

NEP-HIS SocArXiv Poshatskii, Viacheslav · 2026-08-13

archival

Documents that over a thousand World Development Indicators series have quietly vanished from the World Bank's public API, a caution for anyone building long-run cross-country datasets on WDI foundations.

Froebel’s gifts: how the kindergarten movement changed the immigrant family

JEG Philipp Ager, Francesco Cinnirella · 2026-09-08

Uses newly collected historical kindergarten statistics to show the rollout of US kindergartens lowered fertility and raised schooling among immigrant families, a clean historical dataset-construction paper on immigrant assimilation.

Causal Inference & Applied Microeconometrics

13 items

Covariate Adjustment in Randomized Experiments: A Unified Framework for Decision and Practice

arXiv econ.EM Jiawei Fu, Donald P. Green · 2026-09-08

Develops a unified decision framework resolving the long-standing dispute over whether and how to adjust for covariates in randomized experiments.

Policy Gains or Household Need? The Allocation Logic of China's Dibao Program

arXiv econ.EM Haojie Liu, Jiyuan Ling, Zihan Lin · 2026-09-08

Combines predicted policy gains with revealed selection into China's Dibao welfare program to show actual allocation tracks need far more than efficiency, a policy-learning approach to targeting.

Designing Spatial Treatments

arXiv econ.EM Stefan Faridani, Michael P. Leung · 2026-09-08

Proposes a Matérn point-process design for spatial experiments that separates treated sites enough to identify an "uncontaminated" average effect free of spillover contamination.

CausalVerify: An Execution-Grounded Benchmark for LLM Causal Inference Workflows

arXiv econ.EM Yonghong Zhang, Ricardo Correia, Isabel M. Parra, Yong Xie · 2026-09-07

A new benchmark checks whether LLM-generated causal-inference workflows actually recover the right econometric estimate rather than just producing plausible-looking code, relevant to the growing use of LLM-assisted empirical work.

Median-based Splitting Rules for Causal Trees and Forests

arXiv econ.EM Lennard Maßmann, Karolina Gliszczyńska-Schroeder · 2026-09-07

Extends the causal-forest framework with a median-based splitting criterion robust to the heavy-tailed, skewed outcomes common in treatment-effect heterogeneity applications.

Choosing the Dictionary and Penalty for IV-LASSO

arXiv econ.EM Yukun Ma, Manu Navjeevan, Bogdan Salahub · 2026-09-07

Provides guidance on choosing the instrument dictionary and penalty for IV-LASSO first stages, an area where first-order asymptotics offers no help but finite-sample choices matter a lot.

Anchoring inflation expectations: A teaching treatment and its persistence through the 2025 German federal election

NEP-POL Discussion Papers Gockel, Christine, Strohsal, Till · 2026

A two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German election shows both direct ECB communication and a simple teaching intervention lower inflation expectations by about 100 basis points, and that the effect survives a change in government.

Candidate Set Size and Voting Behavior: A Front-Door Approach to Causal Moderation

NEP-POL Papers Masayuki Haruhara · 2026-08

Applies a front-door-adjustment approach to identify causal moderation effects, using the number of candidates on the ballot in 165 Tokyo municipal elections as a mechanically assigned moderator.

Collective Bargaining and the Wage Structure

NEP-LAB RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series Lorenzo Cappellari, Bernardo Fanfani · 2026-07

A stacked event-study design shows Italian collective-bargaining pay-floor hikes pass through fully to median wages but barely reach the bottom decile, widening within-firm inequality.

The Major Divide: Student Sorting, Meritocratic Admissions & Upward Mobility

NEP-LAB Discussion Paper Series in Economics Razavi, Goya · 2026-08-16

Uses GPA admission cutoffs in Denmark's centralized matching algorithm in a regression-discontinuity design to ask whether low-SES students benefit from access to selective college majors.

Chinese Trade Competition and Rural Mexican Migration

NEP-DEV 2026 Annual Meeting Rutledge, Zach, Mayorga, Joaquin · 2026

Instruments manufacturing employment with regional exposure to Chinese import competition to trace how the post-2001 China trade shock reshaped migration and employment choices among rural Mexicans.

Infrastructure and Rural Transformation: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

NEP-DEV 2026 Annual Meeting Mottaleb, Khondoker, Meerza, Syed Imran Ali · 2026

Uses the 1998 opening of the Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge as a quasi-natural experiment in a difference-in-differences design to estimate long-run gains in rural expenditure and agricultural investment.

Industry Agglomeration in a Developing Economy: Evidence from India

NEP-DEV Studies in Economics Amrit Amirapu, Malavika Thirumalai Ananthakrishnan, Alex Klein · 2026-08

Uses establishment-level census data and an instrumental-variables strategy to disentangle input-output linkages from labour-pooling as drivers of industrial co-agglomeration in post-liberalisation India.

Institutional & Political Economy

13 items

Why China Succeeds: A Road to Prosperity

arXiv econ.GN Qingjie Xia · 2026-09-05

Offers a sweeping institutionalist account of China's rise built on social mobility, land/tax systems and state capacity — more synthesis than empirical test, but squarely in the institutional-economics register.

Historical narratives and political behavior in the US

NEP-HIS Working Papers Ramos-Toro, Diego, Voytas, Elsa · 2026

Surveys over 14,000 Americans on how they narrate the history of race and finds sharp ideological divides in how the past is connected to the present, a historical-political-economy take on polarization.

Urbanization and Electoral Success: Lawyers and Workers in Interwar France

NEP-HIS Post-Print Raphaël Franck, Victor Gay · 2026-08-20

Exploits exogenous interwar French constituency boundary changes to show urbanization eroded lawyers' historical dominance of electoral politics in favour of workers and employees.

Institutional Change

NEP-HIS CEPR Discussion Papers Desierto, Desiree, Koyama, Mark · 2024-07

Desierto and Koyama lay out a cooperation-and-conflict framework for institutional change as an alternative to functionalist accounts, core New Institutionalist theory illustrated with economic-history applications.

Counting the Accountability Gap: A National Freedom of Information Census of Public Clock Maintenance in England

NEP-HIS SocArXiv Dennen, Alfie · 2026-08-13

A tongue-in-cheek but genuine governance study: a national FOI census of England's stopped public clocks finds the pattern of non-answers about who is responsible is itself evidence of diffuse local-government accountability.

How governments finance and defund military spending: Global evidence on deficits, taxes, and civilian spending

NEP-HIS Discussion Papers Bolouri, Armin A., Lohse, Tim, Qari, Salmai · 2026

Cross-country evidence spanning the postwar era shows deficit financing dominates how governments fund military build-ups, with tax and civilian-spending responses shifting as intensity rises.

The political economy of stimulus transfers

NEP-POL Working Papers Vannutelli, Silvia · 2025

Shows one of Italy's largest stimulus tax credits, despite excluding the poorest, raised the incumbent party's vote share — a clean political-economy account of why transfers are poorly targeted.

Competence, loyalty & exit evidence from Iranian provinces

NEP-POL Discussion Papers Grigoriadis, Theocharis, Shahmohammadi, Shahrzad · 2026

Uses an oil-price shift-share instrument to separate competence from loyalty in explaining which Iranian provincial governors survive in office.

The Price of Political Ties: Reputational Risk and the Strategic Divestment of Corporate PACs

NEP-POL Eric A. Baldwin, Takuma Iwasaki, John J. Donohue, Charlie Grabois · 2026-07

Uses mass shootings as shocks to the reputational salience of gun politics to show firms strategically divest from corporate PAC contributions when political ties become reputationally costly.

When Does Party Convergence Persist under Alienation-Based Abstention?

NEP-POL Papers Aman Ray, Srikanth Pai · 2026-08

A formal Downsian model shows platform convergence persists under alienation-driven abstention but relocates to the median of the voters who actually turn out.

Obeying in advance: Duterte’s election and the onset of the Philippine drug war

NEP-POL UP School of Economics Discussion Papers Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan · 2026-05

Uses province-week ACLED event data and a within-country placebo to estimate how Duterte's drug war escalated political violence in the Philippines.

Who has the power of the purse? Presidential influence over spending through budget implementation$dKevin J. Angell

NEP-POL Working Papers Angell, Kevin J. · 2026

New data back to 1956 show US presidents shift actual spending toward their budget requests even without changing enacted legislation, eroding Congress's formal power of the purse.

The political economy of debt sustainability analysis: A case study of the Finnish debt brake

NEP-POL IPE Working Papers Kyyrönen, Otto · 2026

A critical case study of the political economy behind Finland's new debt-brake fiscal rule and the technocratic debt-sustainability calculations used to justify it.

Sports Economics

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